Gleaning the Truth

SebeliusJeremiah is always coaching you to seek the truth, so that you can plan – and vote – objectively.  This is harder than it sounds, because all news sources are biased.  Part of the fun is watching theories ripen into facts.  Here are a few we have been watching:

 

  • Employers are holding back on hiring, and cutting hours, due to Obamacare.  We started following this when it was a theory in the business press, and then we looked for it in the BLS figures, and now it’s in the Beige Book.

Many contacts also commented on reluctance to expand due to uncertainty surrounding the Affordable Care Act; some employers cut hours or employees.

  • Employment is restricted due to onerous regulation of business.  This is a perennial complaint from business, but now there is current research in The Economist.
  • Quantitative easing will never end.  This is typical of the cynics at Zero Hedge – the Fed has painted itself into a corner, addicted, enabling, etc.  Today, we have Societe Generale saying the Fed is more likely to increase QE than to taper it.

We are still watching this third one.  QE can’t go on forever, but we should know in January whether it’s ticking up.  The first one, about Obamacare – that’s a fact.  So, why do we see Secretary Sebelius boldly dismissing it?  Maybe she thinks you (and Jon Stewart) are stupid.

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