Tag Archives: Euro

QE Apologia

Now that the Fed has ended QE3, people are starting to evaluate the results. The economist has a roundup of academic studies. Positive findings about QE are generally the “could have been worse” variety. The various studies claim:

  • QE generated some inflation, but not enough
  • It did not generate hyperinflation
  • It did not contribute (much) to inequality
  • The “reach for yield” was justified

The quotation below pretty much sums up Jeremiah’s opinion. We cited hyperinflation as a risk, early on, but the real concern is trillions of new dollars sloshing around equity markets and not creating jobs. Applying the coefficient from a British study, the Fed’s $4 trillion intervention should have generated a roughly 6% gain in output. It didn’t.

QE’s detractors point out that central banks have expanded their balance-sheets by trillions of dollars, yet are still nurturing lackluster recoveries.

The results on inequality and low yields are equivocal at best. People holding financial assets have enjoyed 150% gains, thanks to QE (see chart). But, say the apologists, low yields have also helped people pay their debts. The reach for yield, which has pension funds investing in junk bonds, is justified if it prevents a “catastrophic” breakup of the Euro.

SPX

Overall, the collection of studies provides weak justification for such an extreme policy. The Fed has expanded its balance sheet fivefold, and the academics need a microscope to find the upside – plus, a raft of counterfactuals about how terrible sound money would have been.

We find The Economist’s title, “Early Retirement,” especially cynical. In the real world, our kids can’t find jobs, and the grandparents cannot retire. They will work until they die, because QE destroyed their savings.

See also: Of Flat Lines and Derp

Update: Here is a nice, impartial summary of the arguments for and against QE, with the current status. It is too basic for Jeremiah readers, but something to share with the kids. One editorial point – the author says “three problems,” and then lists four. The fifth would be that people with saving accounts are now enemies of the public good. German “strafzins” is best translated as penalty rate.

Advertisements

Leave a comment

Filed under Economy

Fixing the Euro

Everybody knows what’s wrong with Euro. It’s not even worth posting a link. Okay, here’s one link to FT. Everybody knows what’s wrong with the Euro, and how to fix it. The problem is that the fix is totally unrealistic. Here, we look outside the box for a different solution.

The problem with the Euro is that a common monetary policy does not suit all participants. France could use looser money as stimulus and to monetize some debt. Germany and the northern countries have much less debt and lower bond yields. They don’t need their currency devalued.

Common monetary policy only works if the participants have similar fiscal policy. This is why the Maastricht treaty set limits (which were ignored) on national debt and deficits. France is a deficit country, with debt at 94% of GDP. Germany, at 78%, is a fiscal discipline country.

The popular solution is “ever closer union,” which means taking fiscal policy away from the nation states, with the European Parliament setting the budget for all. There would even be a Europe tax, levied over the heads of national governments, to pay interest on Euro bonds.

This is a swell idea, if you’re the kind of person who prefers giant federal governments to quaint national ones. Unfortunately, about 500 million people suspect an undemocratic plot to disenfranchise them and abridge their national identity.

Furthermore, everyone knew in 1992 that the Euro would not hold together unless the nation states surrendered to European fiscal authority. One could even say that the common currency was a Trojan horse for “ever closer union,” lying in wait for a crisis like 2008.

I am sure the euro will oblige us to introduce a new set of economic policy instruments. It is politically impossible to propose that now. But some day there will be a crisis and new instruments will be created – Romano Prodi

So, we wondered why the revolutionary governments of Virginia, Georgia, et al., would surrender their monetary independence to the new federal government of the United States in 1787. Surely, the democratic impulse was at least as strong in early America as in modern Europe.

Indeed, the currency trap has operated in America exactly as it is operating in Europe, with the states subordinated to federal policy. It took almost two hundred years, though, for monetary policy to be invented.

This brings us to our iconoclastic solution for the Euro. Peg it to gold, or – since gold is a barbarous relic – palladium. Instead of a Euro budget to mesh with monetary policy, take the power entirely out of federal hands. Think of the management effort that would be saved.

No one could whine about fiscal discipline dictated by Germany. Once the peg were set, discipline would come from the bond market. National leaders would have full responsibility for their own budgets, and no excuses.

See also: Why EU superstate conspiracy theories are nonsense

Leave a comment

Filed under Economy